Lower Paxton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

663
FXUS61 KCTP 270832
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
432 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Thunderstorms with localized heavy downpours expected today
  particularly this afternoon and evening in the Laurel
  Highlands and Lower Susquehanna Valley
* Sweltering summertime heat and humidity will persist through
  midweek with heatrisk in the moderate to major category
* A significant pattern shift will deliver a prolonged stretch
  of comfortably cooler and refreshing conditions to start the
  month of August

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Subtle shortwave disturbances/MCVs in the WNW mid level flow
will sync with axis of rich moisture and instability to drive
waves of diurnally enhanced convection today. Steep low level
lapse rates and 1-2k J/kg of MLCAPE should support a marginal
wind damage threat in the stronger multicellular
lines/clusters. PWATS around 2" will favor localized heavy rain
with isolated flash flood risk focused over areas where cells
can train or repeat in the same location. Speaking of location,
hires guidance targets the southern half of the forecast area
with the best odds for potential severe t-storm or flooding
hazards.

Very warm and humid today with max temps in the 80-90F range
give or take. Max heat index values are fcst to run just shy of
the century mark in the lower elevation to the east of the
Allegheny Front. Mild and muggy night with fog and low temps in
the 60-75F range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Expansive 590+dm upper ridge/heat dome makes its prescience
felt early this week with limited rainfall and sweltering summer
sizzle into midweek. Heatrisk will be the primary concern with
max HX values reaching/exceeding the 100F mark particularly on
Tuesday afternoon. A heat advisory may be needed in the coming
days. Nights will remain very muggy with low temps 60-75F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Approaching cold front should result in an uptick in storms on
Wednesday as the heat reaches a peak. Models show storms
accompanying the southeastward moving front through CPA on
Thursday. Behind the front, a comfortably cooler and refreshing
airmass is poised to arrive just in time to begin the month of
August. Slightly below average daytime highs 70-80F and lows
50-60F are forecast Thursday night through the first weekend of
August.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through
Central PA tonight, with the second round of showers stationed
just east of UNV with some cells popping across the southern
tier along a UNV-HGR line. The bulk of this activity is expected
to exit the area in the 04-05Z timeframe based on recent hi-res
guidance, combined with GLAMP guidance. Signals for MVFR/IFR
remained slightly muted for the 00Z TAF package; however, heavy
rain will likely enhance these signals overnight, with highest
confidence across AOO/UNV/JST.

Fog/low ceilings will remain possible at all airfields
overnight under a moist air mass, with dew point depressions
between 0F-3F. Low ceilings are expected to gradually taper off
between 12-16Z with low (~20-30%) confidence given yet another
round of showers/storms across central Pennsylvania. Guidance
does begin to indicate relatively dry conditions moving into the
area west-to-east towards the end of the 00Z TAF period,
potentially allowing for VFR conditions with moderate (~50-60%)
confidence in lack of restrictions but low (~20-30%) confidence
on timing.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...VFR.

Wed...Scattered PM TSRA.

Thu...SHRA/TSRA, trending drier NW to SE by late PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff
AVIATION...Bauco/NPB