Lower Paxton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

120
FXUS61 KCTP 152333
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
733 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hottest temperatures of the year so far forecast early next
week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Hottest temperatures of the year so far forecast
early next week

An anomalous upper ridge building over the east-central U.S.
will deliver summerlike conditions over the weekend through the
first part of next week. Max temps are on track to peak in the
mid 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday and could challenge
daily records in some locations. Manual adjustments were made
to lower NBM maxT by a few degrees due to a known systematic
bias correction issue identified during the shoulder seasons.
This should also keep max heat indices under 100F for the most
part. However, heat risk impacts will continue to be monitored
given the quick ramp-up in heat and limited acclimation time.

A cold front accompanied by showers/t-storms brings relief next
Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to cool down
back to historical/climo averages for late May for the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected tonight with decreasing clouds and
wind with sky expected to be mostly clear for most sites after
midnight. Clouds overspread much of PA throughout the afternoon
Saturday but VFR likely continues for most of the day. Sct
showers with some isolated thunderstorms possible mainly over
the western airfields from late afternoon into early Saturday
night.

Outlook...

Sat-Sat Night...Chance of showers/isolated t-storm mainly over
the western terminals.

Sun-Tue...Mainly VFR. Patchy A.M. fog. Isolated P.M. shower or
t-storm possible.

Wed...Restrictions probable through Wednesday night with
showers/storms along CFROPA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record max temperature for May 18-19:

                    5/18                      5/19
Harrisburg        94 in 1962                95 in 1962
Williamsport      95 in 1962                96 in 1996
Altoona           91 in 1962/1996/2017      92 in 1996
Bradford          85 in 1962                85 in 1962
State College     92 in 1962                92 in 1934/1996

Please note: State College Co-operative observations are a
24-hour summary taken once per day around 7 AM (7AM-7AM).
Therefore, a max temp occurring in the daylight or late in the
day is usually reported in the _next_ day`s observation. Also,
the same min temp may be reported on two consecutive days if the
min occurs at observation time.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Lambrech
CLIMATE...Dangelo/Steinbugl