Lower Paxton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

917
FXUS61 KCTP 222352
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
652 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Decreased snowfall totals slightly in the lower elevations of
  south-central PA as well as in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Moderate to heavy snow continues today and tonight as low
pressure develops off of the east coast.

2) Multiple chances for rain and snow throughout the coming
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Moderate to heavy snow continues today and
tonight as low pressure develops off of the east coast.

Accumulating snow so far today has largely been confined to
the northern and western mountains, while a shallow warm layer
near the surface for areas farther to the southeast has
resulted in precipitation falling mainly in the form of rain. We
still expect a quick changeover to snow across the Lower
Susquehanna Valley later this afternoon as an area of low
pressure rapidly deepens off the coast and pulls colder air
into the region from the northeast.

Three areas of higher snowfall totals are expected across the
region, with relative minimums in between. The first is in the
Laurel Highlands where northwest flow on the back side of the
coastal low will support a prolonged period of upslope snow into
early Tuesday morning. Total snowfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches
are expected along the ridges of Cambria and Somerset Counties.

The second maximum will be found from the Franklin and Adams
Counties northward through eastern Centre and Clinton Counties.
This is associated with an inverted trough that is developing
and will slowly pivot across the region through the afternoon
and evening. The enhanced low-level convergence associated with
this feature has allowed for a couple of quasi-stationary snow
bands to develop this afternoon which should slowly translate
eastward through the rest of the day. Surface temperatures near
or slightly above freezing in part of the area have limited
accumulations to grassy surfaces, but we anticipate that this
will change as we get closer to sunset.

Most guidance continues to support a third maximum across
far eastern portions of the forecast area as the coastal low
deepens and mesoscale bands of heavy snow develop. Most of these
bands likely remain to our east, but much of the high resolution
guidance continues to support some of the heavier snow making it
into far eastern Lancaster, Lebanon, and Schuylkill Counties.

Wind gusts increase to 30 to 40 mph overnight, leading to
blowing and drifting snow. This will make travel difficult,
particularly in the Laurel Highlands and in the southeast. Snow
tapers off Monday morning for most of Central PA as the coastal
low moves off to the northeast, but upslope and lake enhanced
snow showers will continue across the northern and western
mountains.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple chances for rain and snow throughout
the coming week.

A clipper system tracking to our north Tuesday night and
Wednesday will bring light to moderate snow to parts of the
region. An initial wave of snow is likely as warm advection
overspreads the area with additional snow showers and
potentially a few snow squalls possible along the cold front as
it moves through during the afternoon.

Most model guidance shows a stronger low pressure system moving
through the region Thursday night and Friday, but details remain
uncertain. A mix of rain and snow would be favored for much of
Central PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the system off the coast continues to strengthen we will see
continued snowfall across much of central PA throughout the
night. Widespread low MVFR to IFR due to visibility reductions
are being observed over much of the commonwealth as bands of
periodic heavy snow impact portions of the central mountains and
far southeast PA. Snow will be increasing in intensity most over
LNS and MDT throughout the late evening and early morning hours
as a deep frontogenetic band sets up over our eastern counties.

A steady increase in wind/gusts from the NNE to NNW has been
noted already tonight and winds will continue to increase into
Monday leading to frequent blowing and drifting of the snow and
reduced vsbys. A mention of blowing snow has been included at
all sites in southern PA. Little in the way of improvements is
expected until the end of the 00Z TAF package. Most airfields
should see rising ceilings and visibilities by 18Z Monday, but
BFD and JST may continue to see snow later into the afternoon
with upslope flow.

Outlook...

Mon...Widespread IFR restrictions in snow. Gusty winds late
Monday.

Tue...MVFR-IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at
BFD/JST, largely VFR elsewhere.

Wed-Thu...Scattered rain and snow showers, restrictions
possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ005-006-
010-011-017-025-034-037-041-046-051>053.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ012-018-019-
026>028-035-036-042-045-049-050-056>059-063>066.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ024-033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Bauco
DISCUSSION...Bauco
AVIATION...Beaty/Bowen